Trucking "Recession" of 2019

BirchBarlow

I love KW 680s
Not been trucking much lately though I do have 10s of thousands "parked" in several differnt 401ks and watching the "markets"

Not even a big "investing" guy just the few places I stuck oit more than a year or two n took advatage of company match

Nonetheless thats my $$$
.............................................
The trucking industry is already in a recession. That isn’t good, when shipping is the lifeblood of the economy, moving goods along its tar-paved arteries.

That poses a key question for investors: Does freight industry weakness presage a full-blown economic downturn? The answer: probably not.

“The freight industry is currently experiencing a recession, which began in October 2018,” writes Aaron Terrazas, Convoy director of economic research, in a report published Thursday. (Convoy is a new digital marketplace trying to make the traditional truck brokerage industry more efficient, especially when roughly a third of all miles truckers drive are empty, Terrazas says.) Freight volumes have been falling since last fall, he adds.

Fortunately for the stock market, freight recessions are relatively common, and freight weakness doesn’t necessarily mean a larger recession is on the way.

“The freight industry has experienced 12 recessions since 1972, twice as many as the overall economy,” writes Terrazas. “Half of the times that the freight economy has shifted to contraction over the past four decades, the rest of the economy has continued to expand.

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BirchBarlow

I love KW 680s
Not been trucking much lately though I do have 10s of thousands "parked" in several differnt 401ks and watching the "markets"
.............................................
The trucking industry is already in a recession. That isn’t good, when shipping is the lifeblood of the economy, moving goods along its tar-paved arteries.

That poses a key question for investors: Does freight industry weakness presage a full-blown economic downturn? The answer: probably not.

“The freight industry is currently experiencing a recession, which began in October 2018,” writes Aaron Terrazas, Convoy director of economic research, in a report published Thursday. (Convoy is a new digital marketplace trying to make the traditional truck brokerage industry more efficient, especially when roughly a third of all miles truckers drive are empty, Terrazas says.) Freight volumes have been falling since last fall, he adds.

Fortunately for the stock market, freight recessions are relatively common, and freight weakness doesn’t necessarily mean a larger recession is on the way.

“The freight industry has experienced 12 recessions since 1972, twice as many as the overall economy,” writes Terrazas. “Half of the times that the freight economy has shifted to contraction over the past four decades, the rest of the economy has continued to expand.

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Long story short I guess freight is way down and that is also warning "indicater"..

Of course they say DOW Transports and the Baltic Dry Index doesnt necessarily mean anything ..

Then again when the Foreclosure Crisis started in 2005/2006 they said "Dont" Worry and the Market "rallied" even stabilized somewhat until 2nd half of 2007

A year later the Financial Crisis and Great Recession "kicked" off into FULL SWING
 

Ontario Outlaw

Hozer Witta Hood
Supporter
Long story short I guess freight is way down and that is also warning "indicater"..

Of course they say DOW Transports and the Baltic Dry Index doesnt necessarily mean anything ..

Then again when the Foreclosure Crisis started in 2005/2006 they said "Dont" Worry and the Market "rallied" even stabilized somewhat until 2nd half of 2007

A year later the Financial Crisis and Great Recession "kicked" off into FULL SWING
It’s designed to keep the CITIZENS from “revolting”

The time is now to “rise”up but most citizens are too COMPLACENT

How much MORE can we take before it’s “too” LATE
 

Rigjockey

In Gord we trust!
Supporter
Not even a big "investing" guy just the few places I stuck oit more than a year or two n took advatage of company match
I am fortunate enough to be with a company that does match our retirement plan (kinda like a 401k)
I called up and asked to participate in this program. One of the owners said, I would be crazy not to.

Well, I am crazy, but I am going to do it anyway :rolllaugh:

It's FREE money!:thumbsup:
I am a 3 year man and I am in! I was talking to a 5 year guy and he is not participating. Dude, you just lost 4 years of free money.:dunno:
 

BirchBarlow

I love KW 680s
I am fortunate enough to be with a company that does match our retirement plan (kinda like a 401k)
I called up and asked to participate in this program. One of the owners said, I would be crazy not to.

Well, I am crazy, but I am going to do it anyway :rolllaugh:

It's FREE money!:thumbsup:
I am a 3 year man and I am in! I was talking to a 5 year guy and he is not participating. Dude, you just lost 4 years of free money.:dunno:
Same reason here but if they "Crash" may be out my $50/ $100 a week too..

Is it Better to pay those "Capitol Gains" and Fees now before it really "drops"
 

Mike

Well-Known Member
Staff member
We are not in a recession, we are overrun with trucks on the road. Folks can cry about a driver shortage all day long, makes no sense when there are constantly more trucks available than there are loads to haul.

Any brokerage, or those related to the brokers, are preaching doom and gloom, and it’s all being done to drive rates down. And it is working.

Truth? The money is still there, just ask the shippers who are paying more than ever to get their loads moved.

We now have companies out there that are gathering data from shippers, eld’s, etc.... and selli that back to carriers. They are also pushing stories really hard and passing it off as news. You don’t need to look to far into upper management to see what side of the trucking industry holds their interests.

Brokers are earning record profits, we are being fed this BS about a recession.
 

Ontario Outlaw

Hozer Witta Hood
Supporter
We are not in a recession, we are overrun with trucks on the road. Folks can cry about a driver shortage all day long, makes no sense when there are constantly more trucks available than there are loads to haul.

Any brokerage, or those related to the brokers, are preaching doom and gloom, and it’s all being done to drive rates down. And it is working.

Truth? The money is still there, just ask the shippers who are paying more than ever to get their loads moved.

We now have companies out there that are gathering data from shippers, eld’s, etc.... and selli that back to carriers. They are also pushing stories really hard and passing it off as news. You don’t need to look to far into upper management to see what side of the trucking industry holds their interests.

Brokers are earning record profits, we are being fed this BS about a recession.
All the signs point to the USA being pointed towards a recession.

Tighten yer belt buckle
 

ironpony

Professional Pot-Stirrer
Supporter
we are being fed this BS about a recession
The bond yield curve has "gone inverted," and that has Wall Street worried. While that isn't the definition of a recession, its supposed to be a troubling sign of economic difficulties ahead. One of the cause of the troubles of the 1930s was the protectionist policies in vogue then, and that's what's going on between the US and China. While we may be economically strong enough to weather that storm, it ain't helping, and the latest delay of the next batch of tariffs on consumer goods is a nod a the truth: China isn't paying a cent of those tariffs - we, the US consumers are.

The good news is that the world's economy is being supported on the back of the US economy. The bad news is 8 of the 9 next largest economies are showing signs of moving toward recession. That ain't good for us, because it means that for our economy to do well, we have to paddle up stream against the recessionist drift of the rest of the world.

Unsettling economic news, but not a recession...

Germany has Powered Europe's Economy...
 

Electric Chicken

Jock
Supporter
The bond yield curve has "gone inverted," and that has Wall Street worried. While that isn't the definition of a recession, its supposed to be a troubling sign of economic difficulties ahead. One of the cause of the troubles of the 1930s was the protectionist policies in vogue then, and that's what's going on between the US and China. While we may be economically strong enough to weather that storm, it ain't helping, and the latest delay of the next batch of tariffs on consumer goods is a nod a the truth: China isn't paying a cent of those tariffs - we, the US consumers are.

The good news is that the world's economy is being supported on the back of the US economy. The bad news is 8 of the 9 next largest economies are showing signs of moving toward recession. That ain't good for us, because it means that for our economy to do well, we have to paddle up stream against the recessionist drift of the rest of the world.

Unsettling economic news, but not a recession...

Germany has Powered Europe's Economy...
Nobody expects China to actually pay the tariff as a kind of tax, fee, or fine. The idea is for us to seriously curb how much of their crap we buy due to the new higher prices.

IOW "might as well buy American now they're almost the same price."

So not only does our economy get to boom again with manufacturing, they get hurt by less of it. Then they drop their prices and we get cheap crap again.

Let's face it nobody buys from China because it's actually better.
 

ironpony

Professional Pot-Stirrer
Supporter
Nobody expects China to actually pay the tariff as a kind of tax, fee, or fine. The idea is for us to seriously curb how much of their crap we buy due to the new higher prices.

IOW "might as well buy American now they're almost the same price."

So not only does our economy get to boom again with manufacturing, they get hurt by less of it. Then they drop their prices and we get cheap crap again.

Let's face it nobody buys from China because it's actually better.
Look at the smartphone you're typing this crap on, and say that.
 

Mike

Well-Known Member
Staff member
The bond yield curve has "gone inverted," and that has Wall Street worried. While that isn't the definition of a recession, its supposed to be a troubling sign of economic difficulties ahead. One of the cause of the troubles of the 1930s was the protectionist policies in vogue then, and that's what's going on between the US and China. While we may be economically strong enough to weather that storm, it ain't helping, and the latest delay of the next batch of tariffs on consumer goods is a nod a the truth: China isn't paying a cent of those tariffs - we, the US consumers are.

The good news is that the world's economy is being supported on the back of the US economy. The bad news is 8 of the 9 next largest economies are showing signs of moving toward recession. That ain't good for us, because it means that for our economy to do well, we have to paddle up stream against the recessionist drift of the rest of the world.

Unsettling economic news, but not a recession...

Germany has Powered Europe's Economy...

Understand all that. Still, we are not in a trucking recession this year, as so many trying to steer the direction of the industry are trying to make us think I order to justify low rates being pushed on us.

These folks have been pushing this myth all year, even late last year.
 

Ontario Outlaw

Hozer Witta Hood
Supporter
The voice on the radio said the USA will be in a recession by 2020-2021. The White House is preparing tax cuts to try and combat things but it may be too little too late
 

Gdjjr

Well-Known Member
The voice on the radio said the USA will be in a recession by 2020-2021. The White House is preparing tax cuts to try and combat things but it may be too little too late
Has anyone who is "predicting" stopped to think that maybe, just maybe, this is Fake News? What better way to divert attention away from BS issues, of which there are many, so candidates can have a *platform* with some relevance.

I remember *a* recession in the late 70's and early 80's down here- when it hits down here it will be real- so, that maybe means they are talking regional, as in the Wall Street region-
I saw a blurb this morning that Forbes was "predicting" a recession based on RV sales being down- maybe Forbes writers need to get out from behind their desks- numbers don't lie, but liars, no matter how sincere, use numbers (selectively) to bolster their beliefs- or wishes, whichever the case may be-
 

Ontario Outlaw

Hozer Witta Hood
Supporter
Has anyone who is "predicting" stopped to think that maybe, just maybe, this is Fake News? What better way to divert attention away from BS issues, of which there are many, so candidates can have a *platform* with some relevance.

I remember *a* recession in the late 70's and early 80's down here- when it hits down here it will be real- so, that maybe means they are talking regional, as in the Wall Street region-
I saw a blurb this morning that Forbes was "predicting" a recession based on RV sales being down- maybe Forbes writers need to get out from behind their desks- numbers don't lie, but liars, no matter how sincere, use numbers (selectively) to bolster their beliefs- or wishes, whichever the case may be-
It is a little fishy it’s on the news before election time.

“Vote trump, and the recession won’t happen!”

I can see that playing out
 

Gdjjr

Well-Known Member
It is a little fishy it’s on the news before election time.

“Vote trump, and the recession won’t happen!”

I can see that playing out
mark Twain, it's claimed, said, the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.

On average, the S&P 500 has returned 2.5 percent after a yield-curve inversion in the three months after the episode, while it has gained 4.87 percent in the following six months, 13.48 percent a year after, 14.73 percent in the following two years, and 16.41 percent three years out, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

A look back revealed that the inversion was temporary, reflecting not a coming recession but a surge of foreign bond buyers flocking to U.S. treasuries because they pay interest at rates far above those available from foreign governments.

Then came Walmart, which reported on Thursday that its second-quarter earnings beat expectations. A proxy for the overall U.S. economy because of its enormous size — 1.5 million employees in the United States manning more than 3,500 Supercenters generating more than half a trillion dollars in annual gross sales — the company’s results not only beat expectations, but reported that same-store sales grew by 2.8 percent. This negated predictions that the U.S. economy was slowing to below two percent, far away from (as the talking heads were often delighted to note) Trump’s promise of three-percent growth under his administration. To add to those prognosticators’ discontent, Walmart expects U.S. same-store sales to rise “to the upper end of the 2.5% to 3.0% range” for fiscal year 2020.

Two reports from Federal Reserve banks added to their chagrin: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported on Thursday that its manufacturing index came in at 21.8, far ahead of prognosticators’ prediction of 11.1. And the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index rose to 4.8 versus naysayer’s expectations of a drop to 2.5.

Finally, productivity of U.S. workers — GDP per worker — rose at a solid 2.3-percent rate versus estimates of just a 1.5-percent improvement.

Mark Twain has been proven right once again. Not only is the U.S. economy not on its deathbed, it is alive and thriving, extending its recovery from the Great Recession into record territory. Notions to the contrary are proving to be a head fake.

 

Mike

Well-Known Member
Staff member
The voice on the radio said the USA will be in a recession by 2020-2021. The White House is preparing tax cuts to try and combat things but it may be too little too late
The voices on the radio predict it 24/7. At some point, like a broken clock, they will be right.
 

ironpony

Professional Pot-Stirrer
Supporter



INDUSTRY TRENDS
WEEK
AUG 12 - AUG 18 VS. AUG 05 - AUG 11
MONTH
JUL 2019 VS. JUN 2019
YEAR
JUL 2019 VS. JUL 2018
Spot Load Posts+5.4%-19.9%-37.3%
Spot Truck Posts-1.3%+12.2%+22.6%
Van Load-To-Truck+12.6%-32.8%-39.2%
Van Spot Rates+1.7%-2.7%-18.9%
Flatbed Load-To-Truck-4.7%-28.1%-62.9%
Flatbed Spot Rates-0.5%-1.3%-17.8%
Reefer Load-To-Truck+8.5%-28.3%-41.3%
Reefer Spot Rates+1.0%-3.0%-15.7%
Fuel Prices-0.7%-1.4%-5.
The industry data from DAT sure doesn't look like a booming freight market. Granted, this is a weekly snapshot on a year over year basis, but these numbers haven't looked good all year.

Fuel prices being down indicates weakness in demand - a sure sign that freight volumes are down.

DAT Trendlines
 
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